NBA PICKS
2019-2020 Season
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Here are my archived write-ups for the 2019-2020 NBA season. These feature my analysis and breakdown of the game combined with SDQL queries and trends to support the position.
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Overall Record: 6-2 (75.0%)
ATS: 2-1 (66.7%)
OU: 4-1 (80.0%)
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03/08/2020 - RAPTORS AT KINGS - L
03/06/2020 - HEAT AT PELICANS - L
02/29/2020 - ROCKETS AT CELTICS - W
02/21/2020 - MAVERICKS AT MAGIC - W
02/08/2020 - SPURS AT KINGS - W
02/01/2020 - HEAT AT MAGIC - W
01/26/2020 - PACERS AT TRAILBLAZERS - W
01/25/2020 - MAVERICKS AT JAZZ - W
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03/08/2020 - TORONTO RAPTORS AT SACRAMENTO KINGS
Pick: Raptors -6 - Loss
Tonight, the Sacramento Kings (+6) host the defending NBA champions Toronto Raptors w/ a total of 226.5, implying a final score of 116-110, TOR. TOR is on their 4th game of a 5 game road trip. Tonightās game is the first of a B2B as they wrap up with the road trip in UTAH tomorrow. They were dominated by Denver on the first game of the road trip, but have since bounced back with two wins. SAC has done quite well lately ā theyāve covered 7 out of their last 9 games; however, a good chunk of these have been against some of the worst defensive teams (GSW, POR, WAS) ā I think theyāll be in for a rude awakening against TORās stingy defense.
Match-Up/Player Breakdown
SAC has been shooting the 3 ball well. Since All Star Break, SAC is 3rd in the league in 3PT% at 39.7%. However, for the season, TOR is 1st in the NBA in lowest 3PT% allowed at 33.8%. Pascal Siakam leads the league in Contested Threes per game. Also, OG Anunoby of the Raptors has also emerged as a strong 3 and D roleplayer, leading TOR in Defensive Win Shares for the season. These two will match up well against Nemanja Bjelica, Bogdan Bogdanovic, and Harrison Barnes, all high volume 3 point shooters in the frontcourt. In addition, since the All Star Break, SAC is 7th in the league in EFG%; however, TOR counters that with being 3rd in lowest Opponentsā EFG%.
TOR has been averaging 26.4 Free Throw Attempts per game, which is 4th highest in the NBA since All Star Break. SAC, on the other hand, is 27th in the NBA in Fouls per game (22.8) and Opponent FTA (26.1). Expect TOR to get to the line plenty of times tonight - especially Siakam and Kyle Lowry as they both draw matchups against two average defenders, Nemanja Bjelica and DeāAaron Fox.TOR leads the league in Fast Break Points scored at 19.4. Siakam, Lowry, and Norman Powell are all in the leagueās Top 10 Fast Break Points scored per game. In the last 10 games, Sacramento are 20th in Opponentsā Fast Break Points allowed and TOR should still continue to run and gun on SAC.
SACās Richuan Holmes is back from an extended time off due to injury. He is a key cog in their roster (1st in Offensive Win Shares, 2nd in Defensive Win Shares), but he looked a step slow in his first game back last night. Factor in the back to back, I would not be surprised if he is fatigued. If so, TORās fast break attack and tendency to draw fouls will wear on Holmes.
Situations/Trends
This season, a team off a win on the road where they made 20 or more three pointers are 1-15-1 ATS. This trend was quite surprising. Perhaps the team gains too much confidence and continue chucking threes the next game instead of sticking to their original game plan. This is active on SAC. In addition, TOR is one of the best teams in defending the 3, so if SAC continues to hoist 3 pointers, I donāt see it ending well for them.
This season, when a home underdog is coming off win by a large margin and they held this lead beginning to end (w/ little to no lead changes), theyāve gone 0-15 ATS. Since they won so easily, perhaps they are a bit more relaxed and might have a little more āirrational confidenceā next game as they return home. Also, the public may look at this performance and believe the Kings are better than they truly are, making them overvalued in the market.
TOR seems to do well when they are on the first game of a back-to-back and their next game (tomorrow at Utah) is against an above average team. Theyāve gone 7-2 ATS since 2018. They donāt let the look-ahead game result in a let-down for the current game.
Finally, since 4/3/2019, when Pascal Siakam shoots less than 34% from the field in the prior game, Raptors have gone 8-2 ATS. He tends to bounce back hard and makes up for it the following game, contributing to the teamās success.
Conclusion
Toronto -6 is my pick for today. It looks like the public is in favor of this pick, so letās ride with the āJoesā today as I think the reigning champs prevail on the road against the fatigued Kings on the 2nd night of a back-to-back.
03/06/2020 - MIAMI HEAT AT NEW ORLEANS PELICANS
Pick: Over 232 - Loss
Tonight, the New Orleans Pelicans are short home favorites of -1.5 against the Miami Heat in a cross-conference showdown w/ a total of 232, implying a final score of 117-115. MIA has been playing great ball lately ā they just wrapped up a 5 game home stand after All Star Break, winning 4 of those 5 (including one against the Bucks). Theyāve gone Over 7 of their last 8 - the lone Under coming against the fatigued Bucks on a 2nd night of B2B. As for NOP, theyāve struggled lately and lost a few games in a row, but they are still scoring in bunches ā an amazing 22-6 OU since 12/29/2019. Over the Last 10 games, NOP has averaged 121.9 PPG and MIA has been averaging 117 PPG.
MATCH-UP/PLAYER BREAKDOWN:
Both of these teams play with very different styles. MIA plays at one of the slowest paces in the league (26th), but plays very efficiently ā low turnovers and solid shooting percentages (includes 3 points - 39%, tied for highest 3P% in the league). Duncan Robinson is a new age Kyle Korver and is lights out from behind the arc, shooting an insane 44.6% from the 3 point line for the season! In addition, they draw plenty of fouls and get to the line often (specifically Jimmy Butler). Since the All Star Break, they lead the league in True Shooting % (61.3%) and Effective FG% (57.4%). I donāt see NOPās swiss cheese defense stopping them.
NOP, on the other hand, plays at one of the fastest paces (2nd) in the league. They are up-tempo team at the top of the league in Fast Break points scored, Points in the Paint, and Possession/Field Goal Attempts per game. Their strategy involves pushing the ball and doesnāt involve much defense. (It is worth noting that MIA is one of the best teams in the league for fewest Fast Break Points and Points in the Paint allowed).
The clash of styles was initially a bit of a concern. In addition, I anticipate Bam Adebayo will give Zion fits inside and force NOP to shoot more. Despite the concerns, I still see it being a high scoring game. The Pelicans are currently 12th seed and battling 6 other teams for 8th playoff spot. They are currently 5 games behind 8th seed Memphis, so if they want to stay in the race, expect them come out with a sense of urgency and dictate the pace. In order to win, theyāll have to stay aggressive and keep attacking on offense and since their defense is terrible, so I anticipate MIA continues the great offensive production.
SITUATIONS/TRENDS:
Since 12/8/2017, teams as an Away Dog off a 4 game winning streak that have played 4 out of their last 5 games at home vs. a non-elite opponent (WP < 70%) goes 19-3 OU. These teams seem to be confident and relaxed and this carries over to the next Away game. They also might feel a little disrespected that they are Underdogs, despite being on a winning streak. This trend is active on MIA.
SDQL Query: Active on Heat - tS(H,N=5)>=4 and tS(W,N=4)=4 and AD and o:WP<70 and date>=20171208
Those that have been following me knew this one was coming: MIAās offense has been incredibly efficient ā theyāve moved the ball well and theyāve protected the ball, resulting in a string of multiple games with a strong ATR Ratio. Since 2016, teams off a Win who have had an above average ATR for 3 consecutive games have gone 32-9-1 OU. This efficient offense continues to trickle into their next game.
Since 2016, following a loss in Overtime on the road, Home Favorites against a non-elite team (<60% WP) go 19-3 OU. I think normal public players would assume fatigue would set in after an Overtime game and would result in a low-scoring game, creating a lower Total in the market. In reality, teams in this scenario actually outperform these totals. Perhaps these teams are frustrated they couldnāt get the job done in a hard-fought Overtime game and are motivated and antsy to come out strong next game. This is active on NOP.
CONCLUSION:
This game opened up at 235.5 and has moved down to 232. This does not concern meā rather, I will take this as an opportunity to take the OVER at a better price and rely on the high-flying Pelicans to dictate the pace and Heatās flourishing offense to continue. I also have a slight lean on the Heat at +1.5 ā I think the wrong team is favored here.
02/29/2020 - HOUSTON ROCKETS AT BOSTON CELTICS
Pick: Under 232 - WIN
Tonight, BOS are short home favorites of -1.5 in a marquee, national TV cross-conference match-up vs. the small-ball, 3 point happy HOU w/ a total of 232, implying a final score of 117-115. Both teams have been red hot after the All Star Break ā HOU has won 4 in a row while BOS has won 3 out of 4 on the road, with their lone loss coming in a nailbiter against the LAL with some questionable officiating towards the end.
MATCH-UP/PLAYER BREAKDOWN
The meetings between BOS and HOU over the last several seasons have been intense and competitive. As a Rockets fan, I have distinct memories of watching Marcus Smart pester and torture the Rockets with some egregious flops (donāt @ me with comments on James Harden), clutch shots, and stifling defense. These teams seem to have a hatred for one another and always bring their āAā game on Defense. Since 2012, the BOS/HOU matchups have gone 2-13 OU. When they play in Boston, theyāve gone 0-7 OU!
Despite Kemba Walkerās absence, BOS has not missed a beat with Jayson Tatum carrying the team on his shoulders. Over the last 3 games, heās averaged 36.7 PPG, 5 3PM off 62.9 FG% and 62.5 3P%. Insane! The last game where he really struggled was vs. HOU a few weeks ago on 2/11/20. HOU will attempt to slow Tatum down by throwing strong wing/frontcourt defenders PJ Tucker and Robert Covington at him. With Kemba Walker already sitting out, if HOU can manage to contain Tatum, I think it could really help the case for the Under.
HOU has scored very well lately, going Over 3 of their last 4 since All Star Break. However, 3 of the 4 were against some atrocious defenses (depleted Grizzlies, Warriors, Knicks). As you know, HOU will be throwing up as many threes as possible; however, BOS ranks 3rd best in the league in Opponentās 3P% and is one of the stingiest teams in the NBA on defense, only allowing 106.5 PPG. Eric Gordon is also not playing, one of HOUās key scorers off the bench.
SITUATIONS/TRENDS
I tweeted this trend last week: since 2017, when HOU is an underdog and they made at least 20 3-pointers in their last game, they are 0-9 OU. HOU seems to gain confidence after making a lot of 3ās and continue to be trigger happy next game. Being one of the top teams in the NBA, they are not Underdogs often so this would also correlate with playing an elite team on the road. Any way you slice this trend using the Rockets when they made at least 20 3-pointers in their last game, it strongly favors the Under.
Another trend is based on HOU playing Away and won their previous game while allowing their previous opponent to score 50 points or more in the paint. Since 2017, that is 10-32-3 OU. Perhaps they focus their defensive efforts (if any at all) on defending the three because they won their last game while allowing lots of points in the paint. This works better in modern era of basketball where a higher percentage of a teamās shot attempts are beyond the 3 point arc.
Teams as a Home Favorite off a 4 game road trip where their last game was a Win against a team with a Winning Percentage greater than 60% is 12-23 OU. The team is exhausted from travel and exerted a lot of energy winning against a playoff team on the road, so their scoring seems to suffer. This is active on BOS.
Finally, since 2010, when two non-conference Playoff teams (>60% Winning Percentage) play each other after the All Star Break (but not in April when many seedings have been set, players are resting, and teams are tanking), these games go 23-46-4 OU.
SDQL Query: WP>60 and o:WP>60 and conference!=o:conference and H and season>=2010 and AASB and month!=4
CONCLUSION
I believe the play is the UNDER. Taking the Under on two of the hottest teams in the NBA seems to be counter-intuitive, but the trends and the match-up seem to state otherwise. Oh, and GO ROCKETS!
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02/21/2020 - DALLAS MAVERICKS AT ORLANDO MAGIC
Pick: Over 220.5 - WIN
Tonight, DAL is -4 on the road at ORL w/ a total of 220.5, implying a final score of 112-108. Both teams are coming off wins at Home and are playing their first game after All Star Break.
PLAYER/MATCH-UP BREAKDOWN
Since my handicap write-up on 2/1/2020 (Heat vs Magic), ORL has gone 5-1 OU. The loss in defensive production is one contributing factor. To reiterate a point I made last time, losing Jonathan Isaac to a season ending injury has such an impact on the team defensively and they are clearly suffering from it right now. ORL has allowed 110.29 PPG to Opponents since 2/1/2020, which ranks in the median of all NBA teams, whereas they were previously #1 in the NBA in fewest Opponentsā PPG allowed. DAL should be able to feast on the struggling Magic defense.
Another contributing factor to the ORLās recent Over success is the increase in offensive productivity. Take a look at Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic, Evan Fournier, and Markelle Fultzās splits between February and January you will see that all of their scoring and percentages have improved this month. Theyāve played against some awful defensive teams in February; however, the Mavericks arenāt very good defensively either so I expect their hot shooting to continue. I think Aaron Gordon is more motivated after getting screwed in the Dunk Contest again. Evan Fournier seems to be healthy and playing well after dealing with a back injury for most of January. Markelle Fultz has also been steadily improving as the primary ball handler after DJ Augustin got injured. Vucevic has been a stud the entire time, but heās been on fire this month = shooting 54% from the field in February! All of the above has not necessarily translated into Wins for ORL, but has definitely contributed into becoming a more efficient offense and more scoring.
DJ Augustin returns from injury tonight. Even though he is not that great, he is a solid back-up point guard that will relieve PG duties from Fultz. He might be rusty, but his Usage rate is low and he will be able to protect the ball and keep the offense moving. Also, the more minutes he plays, the less youāll have to see of Michael Carter-Williams, who is a net negative on Offense and is a much better defender than DJ Augustin. This will help the case for the Over, as well.
DAL can score and has a potent offense. Luka Doncic is healthy and if they just do what theyāve been doing, they will get their points. No elaboration needed on this. Theyāve gone Over 8 out their last 9 (3 of those games were really close, so it just depends on which total you are using as a basis).
SITUATIONS/TRENDS
As I tweeted earlier, since 2016, teams off a Win with an Assist-to-Turnover Ratio greater than 2.75 for 2 straight games have been crushing the OVER: 78-34-3 OU. Consistency with great ball movement and low turnovers leads to a more efficient offense that carries forward to the next game. Dallas is dead last in the league in Opponentsā Turnovers per game, so I think Orlando will still have the opportunity to get shots.
Someone posed the question: how do you think the long All Star break impacts the trend above? If you narrow down the query to just pull in the games after ASB and use an ATR ratio greater than 2.5 and trace back to 2010, youād see that teams in this situation were still 7-2-1 OU. A much smaller sample size, but they still tend to perform well!
Hereās another nice one: Since 2015 and in their first game after ASB, teams that had average OU margin of 10 or more in their last 2 games have gone 22-10 OU. Similar concept with the ATR, the confidence from the efficient offense and high scoring from previous 2 games carries over to the next game, even with the big break in between.
This season, when Mavericks are Away and playing a below average team (less than 50% WP), they are 10-3 OU (and 10-2-1 ATS). It seems like the Mavs dictate the pace and tempo of the games they play against the bottom feeders of the league.
CONCLUSION
Everyone appears to be on DAL -4 tonight, and while I donāt disagree with the side, I think the OVER is a strong play here. It seems counter-intuitive to play the Over on a Magic game, but I find that feeling to be common when winning in this business.
02/08/2020 - SAN ANTONIO SPURS AT SACRAMENTO KINGS
Pick: Over 223.5 - WIN
At current line of -3 and total of 223.5, implied score is 113-110 Spurs. Both teams have been doing quite well hitting the Over and I expect them to continue tonight.
Spurs are in the middle of their annual grueling Rodeo road trip. This is a 5 or 6 game road trip they take every February while San Antonio hosts the Rodeo at the AT&T Center. The OU record is 10-0 in 2018 and 2019! Amazing! In 2020, they are 2-1 OU so far and the Under the day after Mr. Kobe Bryantās passing (RIP Mamba), so I feel that game should be thrown out for analytical purposes as the entire NBA was mourning. Point is ā the Spurs are well prepared and built for this expected annual trip, while linemakers are bearish on the total.
MATCHUP/PLAYER BREAKDOWN:
One playerās status to monitor is Kingsā breakout big man Richaun Holmes. The Kings are 8-3-2 OU when he sits this season. He is the Kings best defender and leads the team in all defensive advanced metrics (DBPM, DWS) and would disrupt LaMarcus Aldridge big time if he played. The Kings are 10-4 since Jan 1 and that is directly correlated to Holmesās absence. Also, if he is out, youāll see Aldridge and Bjelica, two excellent 3 point shooting big men trading 3ās all game. Both are shooting over 40% from 3PT! Currently, he is listed as āDoubtfulā to play.
SDQL Query: season=2019 and Kings:Richaun Holmes:minutes=0
Spurs protect the ball very well. They average the lowest TO per game in the NBA. In their last 3 games, the averaged a mere 5 TOās/Game (all losses). Also, theyāve moved the ball well, so their Assist-to-Turnover ratio is very strong ā well over 3 for all 3 games. Since 2018, teams off 3 consecutive games where they had a Assist-to-TO Ratio of greater than 2.5 and are coming off a Loss are 10-0 OU! Theyāve executed their offense very well and efficiently and continue to do so as they try to avenge a loss.
Since 2014, teams that have averaged 7 or less turnovers in the last 3 games have gone 19-8 OU (70.4%).
SITUATIONS/TRENDS:
Since 2018, the Spurs are 31-10-2 (75.6%) OU after an Away Loss. In 2019, they are 13-3 (81.2%) OU. Gregg Popovich and his coaching staff usually have the Spurs offense prepared to bounce back after a loss.
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SDQL Query: team=Spurs and season>=2018 and p:AL
SAC has already lost to SAS earlier this season in Overtime. Since 2015, a Home Dog seeking Same Season Revenge against a team in the same Conference off no rest between game number 30 and before the ASB are 26-9-1 OU (74.3%). I used that range of games to avoid the first quarter of the season as teams are not in their groove yet and to exclude After ASB as conference teams are playing each other for the 3rd or 4th time and the āRevengeā factor may not be as critical.
Since 2012 and before the ASB, a team off a back to back at Home where they had 3 days or more of rest before their prior game, they go 29-15 OU (65.9%). I believe defensive intensity picks up after the ASB as teams begin playing harder for playoff implications.
CONCLUSION
My expectation is that this game will go OVER the total of 223.5. Keep your eye out for Richaun Holmesās status and if he is confirmed OUT, I like this play even more.
02/01/2020 - MIAMI HEAT AT ORLANDO MAGIC
Pick: Heat -2.5 - WIN
These division rivals are facing for the 3rd time this season and the 2nd time in the last week. As of right now, MIA is -2.5 w/ a total of 206, implying a final score of 104-102. ORL has lost 4 in a row, including getting blown out in their last game in MIA. Theyāve only averaged 95.7 in their last 3 games. ORL averages 2nd lowest PPG (103.5) in the NBA and allow the lowest PPG to opponents (104.7). Both teams play at very slow paces: MIA 26th and ORL 27th.
PLAYER/MATCH-UP BREAKDOWN
ORL lost up-and-coming forward Jonathan Isaac to a season ending injury back on 1/2/2020. His PER was 2nd on the team, his Def WS was tied for 1st, his Def BPM was 1st, and his Win Shares was 3rd highest. This tells you how important he is to this squad, especially on the defensive end. In all games Isaac has missed this season, ORL has gone 6-10 ATS (37.5%) and 5-11 OU (31.2%). Overall, in 2019, ORL is 21-26 ATS (44.7%) and 19-29 OU (39.6%).
One player on the injury report to keep track of is Evan Fournier. He is ORLās best player on offense, averaging 18.8 PPG / 46.4% FGP / 39.6% 3PT. He leads ORL in Offensive WS and BPM. If he sits, expect ORLās already abysmal offense to suffer even more. Conversely, ORLās defensive production will increase because he doesnāt play D and the players that will pick up his minutes, Terrence Ross and Markelle Fultz, are much stronger defenders. Even if Fournier plays, he wonāt be 100% and will have to face Jimmy Butler.
Also, ORLās next best option, Nikola Vucevic, will have to go against strong defender and break-out first year All Star Center Bam Adebayo. MIAās 2 best defenders, Adebayo and Butler, should neutralize the ORLās 2 best offensive options, Vucevic and Fournier.
SITUATIONS/TRENDS
Since 2017, MIA is 9-2 ATS with 3 or more days of rest. This season, MIA is 11-2 ATS following a SU Loss.
MIA is off a 5 game home-stand. Since 2015, when an Away Favorite has played their previous 4 games at Home where they lost the last game as a Home Favorite, they have gone 18-4-2 ATS (81.8%)! Active on MIA.
ORLās previous game was against MIA. Since 2016, when a Home team is facing a divisional opponent in consecutive games and they lost their previous match-up, theyāve gone 4-9-1 ATS and 5-9 OU. Active against ORL.
MIA is in a spot where they are playing an away game between two home games vs Playoff teams and contenders, Celtics and 76ers. I tried to find a query to mimic this āSandwich Gameā which could possibly be a let-down spot. I sliced and diced it a few ways, but I found that teams in the MIAās position performed quite well:
Since 2017 and after the 10th game of the season, when a team is Away and facing an opponent w/ a winning percentage < 50% and previously lost to a conference opponent w/ WP of 60% or more at Home and their next game is against a conference opponent w/ WP of 60% or more, theyāve gone 10-2 (83.3%) ATS.
SDQL Query: po:WP>60 and no:WP>.60 and p:conference=po:conference and n:conference=no:conference and REG and season>=2017 and tA(W)>=.5 and p:HL and A and n:H and game number>=10
This is the 3rd time these teams have faced each other this season. ORL was blown out last game by MIA. Since 2017, Home Dogs that have already faced their divisional opponent twice earlier in the season and lost their last matchup by at least 10 points, go 16-29 ATS (35.6%).
SDQL Query: P:season=season and PP:season=season and season>=2017 and HD and P:margin<=-10 and division=o:division
ORL and MIA have gone under in their last 3 matchups. Since 2017, Home Dogs where their last 3 match-ups have gone under the total and they lost their last game of 15 points or more, have gone 12-25 ATS (32.4%) and 15-20-2 OU.
SDQL Query: P:U and PP:U and PPP:U and HD and season>=2017 and P:margin<=-15
CONCLUSION
Seems like such a square play and a ātrapā, but all signs point to MIA as short road favorites. Under 206 seems to be the right side as well, but Iām afraid of an offensive explosion from MIA. I like the Under ORL Team Total of 102 better.
01/26/2020 - INDIANA PACERS AT PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS
Pick: Trailblazers -2 - WIN
The line on this game is Portland -2 at a total of 220.5. This implies the score to be 111 ā 109 Blazers. At first glance, given Blazersā struggles as of late, it seems like the wrong team is favored, but letās dive in more.
SDQL Query:
p:AW and pp:AW and ppp:A and pppp:A and A and n:H and n:rest>=2 and season>=2012
Since 2012, teams on a 5th straight road game where they have won the last 2 games and will get at least 2 days of rest before playing their next home game are 6-10-1 ATS.
This is active on the Pacers ā they are on the final game of a 5 game West Coast road trip. They get to return home and get 2 days of rest before their next home game on Wednesday. Theyāve won their last 2 games by a nice margin - they could be fatigued and relaxed as they look forward to their time off. In addition, Pacers just came off a win where they were red-hot - they shot 56% from the field made 17 3ās. Since 2016, teams off a road win where they shot 55% of better from the field and made 17 or more 3ās have only gone 13-30 ATS.
Pacers will also be playing without their starting point guard, Malcolm Brogdon. The Pacers are a well-rounded team with some good depth. While TJ McConnell and Aaron Holiday can come in and temporarily handle the PG duties, they are not as effective and productive as Brogdon. Brogdon is such a focal point of this squad ā he has the 2nd highest PER, the highest Usage %, and 3rd in Offensive Win Shares on the Pacers.
SDQL Query:
season=2019 and Pacers:Malcolm Brogdon:minutes=0
Pacers are 5-8 ATS this season without Malcolm Brogdon (25-21 ATS this season, 20-13 ATS with Brogdon) so you can clearly see his impact. Combine that with the fatigue of the 5 game road trip and I can make the case for Portland.
Trail Blazers have abysmal this season, especially as of late. They are 3-13 ATS overall, 0-7 ATS at Home since 12/23/2019, but theyāve missed dynamic scorer CJ McCollum for 4 of these games. 5 of those were against the red-hot Pelicans, Jazz, Lakers, Mavericks, and Bucks. While their performance has still been bad, some of it is justified against the NBAās best teams.
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The Blazers rank at the bottom of the NBA in Defensive Rating (#25). Theyāve recently traded for Trevor Ariza, whose
defense, leadership, and ability to make the open 3 is going to add value immediately. In his first game as a Blazer, he had a stat line of 21 points, 7 rebounds, 2 steals, and 4 3PTM.
If you look through the Blazersā recent box scores, theyāve been giving up big games to the opposing teamās backcourt. Most of the Pacersā offense comes from Domantas Sabonis and TJ Warren, especially with Brogdon out. I look for some of Portlandās better defenders in Hassan Whiteside and Trevor Ariza to somewhat neutralize Sabonis and Warren and let Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum focus on what they do best... score.
The final trend I have is when Damian Lillard scores more than 35 points 2 games in a row, the Blazers are 7-1 ATS
inception to date. He is streaky and keeps the momentum going after two strong scoring performances.
As long as CJ McCollum isnāt a late scratch, I like the Blazers as short home favorites.
01/25/2020 - DALLAS MAVERICKS AT UTAH JAZZ
Pick: Under 227.5 - WIN
The O/U of 227.5 and current line has an implied total 116-111 Jazz-Mavericks, which is not too far off from their season averages. Both teams have done well with Overs lately - Dallas (6-4) and Utah (7-3) in their L10 games. Both proficient offenses - Dallas and Utah are number 1 and 6 in the NBA in Offensive Adjusted rating (Estimate of Points scored per 100
possessions adjusted for strength of opponent defense), respectively.
However, Dwight Powell recently suffered a season ending injury. Although he is not well known and may not stuff the stat sheet, his impact (particularly on offense) will be sorely missed. He accounts for 2.7 Offensive Win Shares, which is second only to Luka on the Mavericks. His ability to set screens and run the pick and roll is crucial, which opens up a lot of opportunities for Dallas's offense. Although they did not miss him much vs. their last game against Portland, they will definitely feel the impact against a stronger defensive team like Utah.
SDQL Query
p:TPM>=21 and season>=2018 and A and REG
Since the 2019 season, a team that is playing on the road and made at least 21 3PM in their previous game have gone 8-19 OU. Also, when they win that previous game, they go 6-18-1 OU. Both active on Dallas. In addition, Utah defends well against the 3. Their Opponent 3PFG is .339 (27th in NBA). Dallas shoots 46% of their shots behind 3, ranked 2nd most in the NBA only trailing Houston Rockets.
Since 2018, when 2 strong, playoff-bound teams (>60% WP) in the same conference face each other from games 41-78, they go 9-20 OU. Defensive intensity picks up with the increased competition, especially as they jockey for playoff position.
Not a super strong case, but shows that while Mavs typically go over (25-18 OU YTD), but struggle scoring against the good teams that have greater than 60% WP. Theyāve gone 7-9-1 OU this season.