2020 Week 1 NFL Picks

Archiving my YTD NFL Picks.

Week 1 NFL Picks Bears +2.5 -105 No denying Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears were terrible last season. However, with Chicago bringing in Nick Foles, I believe some healthy competition for the starting spot *should* motivate Trubisky to play at a higher level (the bar is low). Despite his struggles, he has been incredibly successful against the Lions. Since 2014, Bears 8-3-1 ATS vs. Lions. Specifically, 4-0 SU/ATS in their last 4 games. Trubisky started 3 of those 4 and had 3 touchdowns in each of those games. I know many of you have heard this plenty of times already, but since 2014, Divisional Underdogs are 21-5-1 ATS in Week 1. Although they saw some decline last season, the Bears still have a stout defense and a returning Akiem Hicks will help put pressure on a returning Matthew Stafford that will be shaking off additional rust from others after being sidelined a majority of last season. They are also without top WR Kenny Golladay. I have the Bears as short favorites as -1 and I predict the final score will be: Bears 24-21. Chargers/Bengals Under 41.5 -105 Both teams have a new playmaker under center with Tyrod Taylor and Joe Burrow. Tyrod Taylor will do a much better job of protecting the ball than Philip Rivers. Less turnovers equate to less chances for the opposition to get easy scores. Even though there are some potent offensive weapons on the Chargers, I expect Taylor to play the role of game manager and attack the Bengals on the ground, keeping the clock running. I also expect the Bengals will play conservatively with their new franchise QB Joe Burrow. With Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram up front, the Bengals will want to protect their investment and allow Burrow to ease into the role. The last thing you want him to do is get sacked a whole bunch and lose confidence – which as a Texans fan, I call the “David Carr Syndrome”. The last 5 matchups (dating back to 2012 FWIW) between Chargers/Bengals have gone 0-5 OU. Since 2017, when Tyrod Taylor is on the road and completes at least one pass, the team has gone 4-8 OU. Since 2012, an Away Favorite from the West Coast (PT) travelling to a non-PT time zone are 33-56-1 OU (37.1%), going under by an average of 4.42 points. The team could be weary and fatigued from travel affecting their offense, which in this case is the superior team I expect this to be a low scoring game. I understand this continues to steam downwards, but I have this game at 21-17 Chargers and I believe under 41.5 is still a good number, staying above the key number of 41.