2020 Week 3 NFL Picks

Week 3 NFL Picks (9/27/2020)

YTD NFL Record: 4-0

Los Angeles Rams at Buffalo Bills

Here is a matchup between two 2-0 teams that have started off the season red hot. The Los Angeles Rams have looked excellent thus far, especially Jared Goff, but some of me thinks it is fool’s gold after facing the Dallas Cowboys soft defense and the Jekyll and Hyde Philadelphia Eagles. The Bills have a strong pass rush (Ed Oliver w/ Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano likely to return) that will be able to put pressure on Goff and a tough secondary that can limit their receivers. The Rams are in a bad situational spot having to travel cross country to play in two consecutive weeks. Add in the extra safety precautions with COVID, travel, and being away from home, this should really have the Rams fatigued.

Buffalo Bills are ranked #3 in Net Yards per play this season. Josh Allen has shown to be a dynamic, dual threat quarterback that can beat you on the ground. If not, he has two strong options at receiver with Stefon Diggs and John Brown. Last game, 4 different players on the Bills caught a Receiving TD. Since 2010, Favorites of less than 7 points where 4 or more players scored a receiving TD in the previous game have gone: 23-8-1 ATS. This is active on the Buffalo Bills. Offenses in this spot continue to click and carries over the success to the next game. Since 2005, teams that are off two consecutive divisional wins and are Home Favorites against a non-conference team are: 18-5-1 ATS (8.42, 78.3%). This is active on the Buffalo Bills. I think the two divisional wins gives a team some confidence, especially when they are favored at home. Also, they have momentum and are playing against a cross-conference team that won’t have as much familiarity against them.

The Rams played a nice game, getting off to a fast start and a 21-3 lead, but almost let the Eagles back in had it not been for some terrible turnovers by the Eagles. Since 2010, teams that are an Away Underdog off an Away Win where their opponent committed 3+ turnovers, they are 20-37-4 ATS (-3.81, 35.1%) the following game. This is active as a play against the Rams. On paper, the Rams beat down of the Eagles was bad, but a lot of it was Eagles shooting themselves in the foot with turnovers.

Rams are in a tough spot and I think the Bills defense will prevail against Sean McVay’s Rams. These teams are evenly matched and will be a fun one to watch. The Bills having homefield advantage and situational travel factors veer my line of this game towards a -3/-3.5. I think the Bills win 24-20 and given the strong defenses, I do not think the Under is a bad look either.

Pick: Buffalo Bills -1

Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints

The Green Bay Packers will be visiting the Superdome for Sunday Night Football in a marquee matchup where I have my sights set on the total. New Orleans’s Michael Thomas has already been declared out and Davante Adams is doubtful. Taking away each quarterback’s most potent weapon should already be an indicator that the total of 53 is too high. I think you’ll see each respective team establish the run game with their star running backs, Aaron Jones and Alvin Kamara, slowing down the pace.

The Green Bay Packers have been looking great to start the season, but they’ve beat up on some weak defenses in the Vikings and Lions, who both rank at the bottom of the barrel in NFL defenses. The Saints are ranked #4 in the league in opponent’s YPC (3.3), so Aaron Jones will not have as much success as last week. Since 2010, a team that eclipsed 200 rushing yards in a win during their previous game and are an Away Dog have gone 29-50-2 (-2.05, 36.7%). I believe these teams have a tendency to go back to what made them successful previous game and try to establish the run, keeping the clock running.

Since Sean Payton became head coach of the New Orleans Saints in 2006, in a Home game after a Saints loss where the total went over, the total has gone 7-16-2 OU (-3.12, 30.4%). The total going over implies that the defense was probably below par and more emphasize is placed on defense next game, leading to tendencies for more Unders. Or, perhaps some additional bounty incentives?

Since 2017, prime time games between two teams that made the playoffs last season where the home team was coming off a loss have gone 3-10-1 OU (-6.61, 23.1%). In a game that will catch many eyes in prime time, a Home team off a loss, have tended to go Under.

I find the total of 53 is way too high for a game script that I anticipate to be run-heavy without the two top wide receivers in the league. I see this total going UNDER, with a final score of Saints 27-21.

Pick: Packers/Saints Under 53