2020 Week 4-13 Archived NFL Picks

Week 4 NFL Picks YTD NFL Record: 5-1

Los Angeles Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers After getting beat by the Saints in Week 1, the Buccaneers have bounced back with two dominating victories over NFL bottom feeders, Broncos and Panthers and are 2-1 for the season. They will be playing again on Thursday Night Football against the now 3-0 Bears. Since 2012, in Weeks 1-10, teams as a Favorite whose next game will be off short rest and their next opponent has a higher Win %, they have gone 6-18-1 ATS (-1.50, 25.0%). I suspect this will be a lookahead letdown spot for the Bucs. Tom Brady finally had a decent game vs. the Broncos banged up defense. Despite playing some poor teams, The Bucs are only averaging 5.4 yards per play on offense, ranked 24th in the NFL YTD. The Chargers defense has been fantastic and was able to contain Patrick “Don’t Call Him Pat” Mahomes a couple weeks ago. Even though Melvin Ingram will be out, I don’t see the Bucs continuing their success on the offensive end. Bucs star WR Chris Godwin will also be out, a huge blow to Bucs receiving corps.

The Bucs Defense, however, has been suffocating. Give Justin Herbert some credit, he hasn’t been great, but he’s shown some promise as a rookie QB that has been thrown in the fire. He has built some good rapport with Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Hunter Henry. He’s been putting up numbers and if the Chargers can limit their turnovers, I believe they have enough weapons to keep up with the Bucs. Since 2015, in weeks 3-10, an Away Underdog of 7 points or less off 2 losses vs. a team that has covered the spread at least the last 2 games, they’ve gone 17-4-1 (6.32, 81.0%). This is active on the Chargers. I think their recent performance has caused the market to undervalue these teams and they tend to perform well in these spots. My model projects the spread should be Bucs -5 and I project the final score to be 23-20 Buccaneers. I think the Bucs come out a little flat knowing they have a lookahead game on Thursday night. With the 2 strong defenses and low totals, I expect the Chargers to keep the score within a TD and cover the spread. Pick: Chargers +7

Week 5 NFL Picks Author: @awang_htx YTD NFL Record: 6-2-1

Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns

There’s a lot of hype on Indianapolis’s #1 ranked Defense in YPP allowed. Their defense has been playing great, but I believe they are a bit overrated after getting some below average matchups in the Vikings, Jets, and Bears. It is easy to use recency bias and forget the lackluster performance in Week 1 vs the Jaguars when they made Gardner Minshew look like prime Drew Brees. Also, they have a few key members of their defense that will be out – notably Darius Leonard who is dealing with a groin injury. This has me interested in playing the OVER on the Total of 47.5. Since 2014, Home Underdogs off a game where they scored more than 40 points have gone 9-1 OU (7.8, 90%). This is active on the Browns. Baker Mayfield and the red-hot Cleveland Browns offense should be able to continue their recent scoring surge. Baker should have plenty of time to operate behind the Browns strong O-line. They will be without Nick Chubb and while they still have a capable back in Kareem Hunt, they may look to get the Baker Mayfield-Odell Beckham connection going. Since 2018, teams in a non-divisional game off an Away Win where they scored 1 or less Touchdown have gone: 10-1 OU (6.73, 90.9%). This is active on the Colts. First, I think a team off a win where they didn’t have a strong offensive performance tends to gain some confidence that will spark their offense the following game. Also, I think their Defense tends to let loose after being so successful shutting down the opponent in the previous game. Since 2017, a Favorite off a win in their previous game where it went Under by more than 10 points and the current Total is greater than previous game Total, the game has gone 26-7-2 OU (7.10, 78.8%). This has gone OVER 17 straight since December 2018. This is active on the Colts. Colts didn’t look sharp offensively last game against the Bears elite pass rush. Philip Rivers has not been playing well, but they should have some more success against the poor Browns pass rush that has given up 31.5 points per game. My pick is on the total to go OVER the total of 47.5. I have the final score projected to be 27-23 Colts. I think the banged up Colts defense faces some regression and will have some trouble stopping the Browns offense. Pick: Colts/Browns Over 47.5

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks

This game is a trend paradise. Let’s get some of these out of the way: - Seattle Seahawks are 8-1 ATS / 9-0 SU in the game preceding their bye week the last 9 seasons. - Seattle Seahawks are 16-3-2 ATS in prime time games as Favorite (dates back to 2011). - Since Russell Wilson has entered the league, Seahawks are 22-7-2 in primetime games. - Since Russell Wilson has entered the league, Seahawks are 41-28-2 in Home games. - Kirk Cousins is 6-15-1 ATS in his career in prime time games. - Since Kirk Cousins joined the Vikings, they are 3-11-1 ATS against teams with greater than 60% win%. (Credit @deepleagueadds for the inspiration). - Vikings have lost 6 SU vs. Seahawks, 1-5 ATS. I’ve bet against Russell Wilson many times in the last few seasons and let me tell you, it is not a pleasant experience. Seattle #3 in Offensive DVOA, #1 in Pass Yards per Atttempt. Minnesota #30 in Pass Yards per Attempt allowed. Even though Minnesota has shown they can put points up, I think Seattle’s offense will overwhelm Minnesota’s secondary. Tyler Lockett and DJ Metcalf have been fantastic and Wilson will keep it rolling against the Vikings. Minnesota gets an upgrade from last week’s beatdown of the Houston Texans on the road as a dog. Vikings has the 3rd best rushing offense, but will be negated by Seattle’s strong rush D, only allowing 3.4 YPC. This will force Kirk Cousins to throw more. While Seattle’s secondary is terrible, Kirk Cousins has shown that he has struggled in these prime time spots, especially against superior competition. I am laying the chalk this week and taking the Seattle Seahawks to cover. I think Russell Wilson continues his MVP-caliber play and continues to feed his receivers. As noted above in the trend section, Wilson is “Mr. Prime Time” and they’ve historically performed well before their Bye Week. Pick: Seattle Seahawks -7

Week 6 NFL Picks Author: @awang_htx YTD NFL Record: 7-3-1

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys

Dallas Cowboys host the Arizona Cardinals as a short home underdog on Monday Night Football in the first game after Dak Prescott’s unfortunate season-ending ankle injury. The spread is ARI -1 and the total is 55, which indicates an implied score of 28-27 ARI. These are two of the fastest paced teams (DAL #1 in seconds per play & plays per game, while ARI is #5 and #9 in those categories) and I expect a shootout, so I am eyeing the OVER on Monday night. DAL will have “The Red Rifle” Andy Dalton under center, who is arguably the best backup QB in the league. I think Dalton has the experience and skills to succeed in this scheme with so many potent offensive weapons around him. On paper, the ARI defense has been playing above par this season, but they will have their hands full with the wildly talented trio of DAL receivers: Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, & CeeDee Lamb. Dalton should have plenty of time to operate, as ARI OLB Chandler Jones had season-ending biceps surgery earlier this week. Since 2003, the DAL is 14-7 OU (7.71, 66.7%) on Monday Night Football. There were some lofty expectations for the ARI offense this season after adding star wideout Deandre Hopkins and with Kyler Murray & Kliff Kingsbury both with one full season under their belt. This season, they rank 11th in Off. YPP (5.9) and have been efficient on the ground: 8th in Yards per Rushing Attempt. DAL is extremely poor at stopping the run, giving up 100+ rushing yards in 4 out of 5 games. They also are 32nd in points allowed (36.0) and TD’s scored (4.0). Since 2017, teams off an ATS and SU win as a Favorite where they converted 100% of their red zone trips to Touchdowns have gone 46-23-2 OU (3.54, 66.67%). ARI has been excellent in the red zone this season, converting 81.25% of their red zone trips to Touchdowns. I think ARI live up to their offensive potential against the poor DAL defense. Since 2015, teams off a game that went under the total and they had a DPS above 0 (more points scored than expected) and the current game total is higher than the previous total, the have gone 85-56-6 OU (2.55, 60.3%). This is active on ARI and I expect they will hold their end of the bargain in scoring. Expect a shootout featuring two below average defenses. I project the score to be 30-28 DAL and my pick is to take the OVER. I believe DAL is a nice play at home as well. Pick: Cardinals/Cowboys OVER 55

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans The Houston Texans will travel to Tennessee to face the 4-0 Titans in an AFC South Division matchup where I will be targeting another total. TEN is -3.5 with a total of 53.5, implying a final score of 28-25 TEN. Typically, you find the divisional matchups feature more familiarity and tougher defense which would naturally lead to Unders, but in this particular matchup, the OVER has been hitting at a high rate, going 22-13-1 OU (62.9%) all time. Prior to last week’s win, HOU was 0-4 SU/ATS. Since 2000, in Week 5 or after, when a team earns its first win (SU & ATS) of the season and they did so as a Home Favorite, they’ve gone 7-0 OU (10.29, 100%) the following game. This is active on HOU. I think HOU Defense may be a bit relaxed after finally getting a win. Furthermore, they face much stiffer competition than last game, so their below average defense that allows 28 PPG will be put to test. On the other hand, Deshaun Watson and the HOU offense looked a lot more comfortable last game and I anticipate they will continue the solid play against a TEN defense that is 27th in YPP allowed. Since 2017, teams off a Win and less than 5 days of rest have gone 32-17 OU (2.53, 65.3%). TEN has had an interesting couple of weeks due to some positive COVID tests. They were forced into a bye week, which resulted in some rescheduling of games, and is now playing in a game with short rest after their rescheduled game on Tuesday. This appears to be a let-down spot, particularly for the Defense. Since Ryan Tannehill became starter in Week 7 of the 2019 season, the Titans have gone 12-2 OU (85.7%) in regular season games. Ryan Tannehill was once again very efficient in the Titans win against AFC playoff competitor (BUF): 3 Passing TD’s while passing for less than 200 yards! With AJ Brown, Jonnu Smith, and Corey Davis as options downfield, expect the Titans offense to keep on rolling against a very underwhelming Texans secondary. I see this as another game with shootout potential. I project the score to be 31-27 Titans and my pick is to take the OVER.

Pick: Texans/Titans OVER 53.5

Week 7 NFL Pick

@awang_htx

YTD NFL Record: 8-4-1

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints

The Carolina Panthers will be visiting the Superdome this weekend to face the New Orleans Saints in a NFC South divisional slobberknocker. Saints are 6.5 point favorites with a total of 50.5, implying a projected score of 28-22 Saints. Panthers have won 3 straight versus the Saints as underdogs in the Superdome.

Panthers have exceeded expectations this season under new head coach Matt Rhule. They are 3-3, winning each of their games outright as underdogs without RB Christian McCaffrey. Their offense has been above average, ranking 11th overall in Offensive Yards Per Play and 9th overall in Offensive DVOA. Mike Davis has stepped up, scoring TD’s in 4 consecutive games. In his career, Teddy Bridgewater is a spread covering machine – going 33-12 (73.3%) ATS in games he’s played and 18- 6 (75%) as an Underdog. Bridgewater has been rather efficient and has been building good rapport with Robby Anderson and DJ Moore. While the Saints line has been effective in stopping the run, the secondary has been mediocre (14th Yards per pass attempt allowed and 15th in Pass Defensive DVOA). I expect Teddy to play well against his old team. Panthers have a look ahead spot to another divisional game on short rest against the Falcons. Since 2014, teams in this situation have gone 11-2-1 ATS (5.14, 84.6%). I think this is a “myth-busting” spot where the market may overvalue the impact of an upcoming Divisional game on short rest. Contrary to what one might think, teams in this spot tend to perform very well against the spread.

The Saints will be playing with some limited receiving corps. Michael Thomas continues to be out with a nagging ankle injury and Emmanuel Sanders is out with COVID. Alvin Kamara should perform well against the Carolina Panthers poor run D (ranked 26th in YPC allowed). However, one interesting stat to note is that since Drew Brees joined the New Orleans Saints in 2006, when the Saints are large Divisional Home Favorites (6 or more points), they have gone 6-16 (-6.80, 27.3%) ATS. The NFC South has definitely been competitive over the years, with 3 out of the 4 each representing the NFC in the Super Bowl the last decade and Buccaneers now a top candidate this season. These games are intense and I anticipate the Panthers can keep it close. As I posted on Twitter, Home teams off an Overtime win have lost 9 straight ATS since 2018. Saints are active in this let down spot, although it is worth noting they are off a Bye week.

I believe the line should be at -4, especially given the injuries to the Saints at receiver. My pick this week is on the Panthers. I project the final score will be 25-21 Saints as the Panthers should fight to keep it tight in this divisional battle.

Pick: Panthers +7 -120 (Buy .5) Week 8 NFL Pick @awang_htx YTD NFL Record: 9-4-1

Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT) at Baltimore Ravens (BAL) These two AFC North powerhouses will face off this weekend in a potential preview of the AFC Championship. BAL is a 4 point favorite and the total sits at 46.5, implying a score of 25-21 BAL. In a game between two run-heavy offenses and two elite defenses, I expect the game to be a low scoring affair and go UNDER the total. While BAL ranks #1 in YPC and #5 in Rush Offense DVOA, their passing game has been lackluster and Lamar Jackson’s numbers are down from last season’s MVP campaign. I know this especially well because I have him on my fantasy team – come on, man! His performance last game against PHI (9 rushing attempts for 108 yards and a TD) was a step in the right direction. Nonetheless, BAL has been rolling over their opponents with a 5-1 record, but outside KC, their schedule has been pretty soft. They will be facing the tough PIT Defense (ranked #1 in Rush Defense DVOA, #2 in YPC allowed) who should neutralize BAL’s strengths and make it tough to score. The Baltimore Ravens are 1-7 O/U (-4.81, 12.5%) since 2004 as a Home Favorite off their bye week. Even though they are 6-0, my numbers show that PIT has had the 2nd easiest schedule so far. Similar to BAL, after dominating a slew of below average teams (sans TEN), PIT will face a defense that should finally pose a challenge. The BAL Defense is well balanced and should be able to limit a middle-of-the-pack PIT offense.

Newest SDQL Bachelor @EVWagers shared this with me the other day: Teams are 38-64-1 OU (-2.11, 37.3%) since 2011 playing as an Divisional Away Underdog with a greater record than their opponent. This is active on 6-0 PIT. Seems that teams in this spot feel a little slighted at being an Underdog despite having a better record and really ramp up the defense. Here are a couple of other notable trends:

Ø The Pittsburgh Steelers are 13-27-1 O/U (-2.16, 32.5%) since 2006 as an Away Underdog.

Ø The Pittsburgh Steelers are 1-12-2 O/U (-6.60, 7.7%) since 12/13/2015 in Divisional Away games.

Ø Dating back to September 2014, these two teams have gone 0-5-1 O/U in their last 6 matchups in Baltimore.

I project the score to be 23-20 BAL as I expect these teams keep it a low scoring game in this divisional battle that has strong playoff implications.

Pick: PIT/BAL Under 46.5 (-110)

Week 9 NFL Pick

@awang_htx

YTD NFL Record: 9-5-1

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers

This Chargers team has a knack for blowing games in brutal fashion, but a bright spot has been rookie QB Justin Herbert (ranked 8th overall in QB rating) and his emergence this season. Looking at their record, the Chargers are only 1-5 when Herbert starts, but in 5 of those 6 games, they had a higher Yards per Pass than their opponent. I think this team is better than their record indicates - their losses have been very close and they’ve had a tough schedule facing the Chiefs, Buccaneers, and Saints. Their passing offense is ranked 7th in DVOA - with Bryan Bulaga practicing fully and Trai Turner a possibility to play, they will be getting 2 key members of their O-Line back against a Raiders defense that ranks in the bottom quadrant in most defensive efficiency categories.

Raiders have been a bit Jekyll and Hyde this season, upsetting the Saints and Chiefs outright, but then getting blown out in games in between. Nonetheless, they are outperforming expectations and have also played a very tough schedule. Derek Carr has had a nice resurgence this season, but RT Trent Brown will be out and that will hurt the Raiders pass protection. This Raiders team is fun to watch, but their defensive stats leave a lot to be desired.

When Justin Herbert starts, Chargers are 1-5 SU and 5-1 in the 1st Half. Since Week 2 (Herbert’s first start), Chargers have outscored their opponents by 30 points in the 1st Half. Raiders have a 4-3 record, but are only 2-3-2 SU in the first half.

AFC West teams are 1-7 ATS since 2009 when they are playing the 1st out of 3 consecutive Divisional games. This is active as a play against the Raiders.

Home teams are 16-4 ATS (5.72, 80.0%) since 2013 after a loss on the road when they blew an 8+ point lead (greater than a TD) after the 3rd quarter. This is active on the Chargers.

I like the Chargers this week, but given their tendencies to blow leads in the 2nd half, I am targeting the 1H line which is currently set at a Pickem. I think the Chargers continue their 1st half success and come out firing at home after an embarrassing loss.

Pick: Los Angeles Chargers 1H PK -108

Week 10 NFL Pick @awang_htx YTD NFL Record: 10-5-1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers After signing Antonio Brown and immediately being declared championship front runners, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers barely squeak out a win against the lowly NY Giants and then got embarrassed by divisional rival New Orleans Saints. Now all of a sudden, the Bucs seem like an afterthought. I imagine Tom Brady downed an extra grass smoothie, put on his favorite pair of Uggs, and mentally prepared himself to make a strong bounce back effort this Sunday. In his career, after Tom Brady loses a game, his team has gone 41-19 ATS (6.72, 68.3%) the following game. If the loss is by 2 or more TD’s, they are 11-3 ATS.

This week, they face another divisional rival in a rematch from Week 2 vs. the Carolina Panthers (where TB won 31-17). The Tampa Bay offense hasn’t looked that sharp, but should fare better against a Panthers Pass defense ranked #17 in Opponent’s Yards per Pass allowed and #21 in Pass Defense DVOA. Even though their record doesn’t show it because of a brutal schedule, the Panthers have looked pretty impressive under Matt Rhule this season. The two games they struggled to score and protect the football were against the Bears and Bucs – which I expect to be the case again, especially without dynamic bank Christian McCaffrey. Bucs Pass defense ranks #6 in Opponent’s Yards per Pass allowed and #2 in Pass Defense DVOA. Their scary D-Line (backed by Jason Pierre-Paul, Ndamukong Suh, and Vita Vea) were instrumental in the Bucs success in Week 2, sacking Bridgewater 5 times and getting 2 interceptions while blowing them out by 2 TD’s. Teddy Bridgewater may be the “Cover King” going 35-13 ATS in his career, but he is only 4-5 ATS in Divisional games at Home.

A league-wide system: Teams above .500 that are Away Favorites in divisional games after Week 8 are 52-29-2 (2.57, 64.2%) since 2015. This is active on the Bucs. By the midpoint of the season, these strong teams tend to perform very well as many of these games have playoff/division title implications. I will pick the Bucs to come out strong and win this game 28-20 even with the news of the delayed flight Saturday evening.

Pick:Buccaneers -6 -105

Week 11 NFL Pick @awang_htx YTD NFL Record: 11-5-1

Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Football Team I know - brutal game to bet and watch. In a game that won’t get many eyes outside of Cincinnati and DC, there will be at least one person in Texas that will be eagerly rooting on the Washington Football Team on Sunday. CIN is 6-2-1 ATS this season, despite only having a 2-6-1 record. However, CIN has been rotten on the road, going 0-16-1 SU in their last 17 road games (their last road W was 9/30/18). Joe Burrow has struggled against strong defenses (PIT, BAL) and now will be going up against a tenacious WFT Defense (8th in YPP allowed, 7th in DVOA) that features standout CB Kendall Fuller and 1st Round Picks Montez Sweat and Chase Young on the line. I expect Burrow (#3 in Sacks taken) to have a rough day behind a shaky O-Line against the WFT Defense (#5 in Sacks).

Alex Smith will be making his 3rd consecutive start since making a miraculous return from that horrific leg injury. Even though WFT has lost his 2 starts, he’s had B2B games with 300+ passing yards and even reached his career high of 390 yards last game and almost led WFT to a comeback after being down 3 TD”s. WFT will finally have some continuity at the QB position and Smith should do well against a Bengals D that ranks 30th in DVOA and YPP allowed. Smith has done well ATS in his career: 89-69-4 (56.3%) in regular season games. He does particularly well after a loss, especially when he threw for a lot of yardage in the previous game (as shown below):

Since 2014, when Home teams are in a look-ahead spot to a scheduled Thanksgiving game, they have gone 17-6 ATS. This is active on WFT. Home teams do well in this spot - perhaps the Away team is not as focused as they mail it in and are looking forward to going home for the Holidays.

Home teams coming off a game where their biggest deficit was 20+ points, but ended up losing by a margin of 3 or less have gone 9-1 SU in their following game (7-3 ATS). This is active on WFT.A valiant effort and comeback that comes up short motivates the team in the next game.

This weekend, I’ll back the better coach, the veteran QB, and the home team. Alex Smith continues his comeback story and leads WFT to a win on Sunday. My calculated line is WFT -3 and projected score is 24-21 WFT.

Pick:Washington Football Team ML -125

Week 12 NFL Pick @awang_htx YTD NFL Record: 12-5-1

Arizona Cardinals at New England Patriots Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving! This week, I am interested in the Patriots/Cardinals matchup where the Pats are short 2 point Home Underdogs (only the 5th time they are Home Underdogs since 2005!).

The young, up-and-coming Cardinals are a respectable 6-4 this season, but have been inconsistent. Had it not been for a spectacular Hail Mary catch by Deandre Hopkins vs. BUF, ARI would be on a 3 game losing streak. Their run game has been on point: #1 in YPC (Yards Per Carry), #5 in Rushing Offense DVOA, #2 in Rush EPA/Play. Kyler Murray running circles around opposing defenses is truly a joy to watch. They face a NE D that cannot stop the run - #28 in Rush Defense DVOA, #30 in YPP allowed. Opposing QB’s have shredded NE (Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, JOE FLACCO!) so I expect Kyler to do the same. With Kyler Murray’s shoulder not being 100%, I expect him to get the wheels moving against the poor NE Run D. Larry Fitzgerald is out with COVID and while that hurts, Christian Kirk should have nice game while NE CB Stephen Gilmore shadows “Nuk” Hopkins. The Patriots’ statistics have been looking impressive since Cam Newton returned in Week 8. Every time I see him in his ridiculous outfits, I think about the Dave Chappelle “Prince of Basketball” sketch: “What are you angry about? You know where you got that shirt from — and it damn sure wasn’t the men’s department.” (RIP Charlie Murphy and Prince). Since Week 8, they are #3 EPA/Play, #5 in Dropback EPA/Play and Rush EPA/Play, but then look at their opponents: NYJ, HOU, BUF, and BAL. 3 of the worst defensive teams in the league and then BAL, a broken squad. They just lost Rex Burkhead for the year, who was absolutely crushing it as of late. They are also missing LT Isaiah Lynn, a key cog in their O-Line. ARI D is subpar, but I think NE’s recent success has been a mirage and I don’t think they generate enough offense to keep up. Trends/Stats: In 2020, Home Underdogs off a loss on the road are 3-26 SU (Not ATS, but Straight Up). Active as a fade against the Patriots. A narrative I have read/heard is that the Cardinals are sandwiched between two Divisional games and this will be a let-down spot for the Cards. Teams playing a Non-Divisional Road game sandwiched between two Divisional Games where they lost their last one on the road have gone 45-26-2 ATS (1.95, 63.4%) since 2001. Non-East Coast Teams that are Away Favorites vs. an East Coast team have gone 47-19-2 ATS (3.62, 71.2%) since 2018. Another active on the Cardinals. I think this is an instance where the market overrates the impact on the travel.

On the Sunday after Thanksgiving, Away Favorites who lost their previous game and their next game is at Home have gone 21-8-3 ATS (3.62, 72.4%). Again, active on the Cardinals. I think the loss and the fact they have to travel during the holidays lights a fire under the team whereas the home team may be relaxed. I make the line Arizona -4 and my projected score is 28-24 Cards. My pick this week is on the Arizona Cardinals to take care of business in Foxborough to put a damper on the Pats’ playoff hopes, while keeping a stronghold on their position in the NFC playoff picture. I think the OVER is a nice look as well. Pick: Arizona Cardinals -2 (-110)

Week 13 NFL Pick @awang_htx YTD NFL Record: 12-6-1

Buffalo Bills at San Francisco 49ers (played at neutral site) After a busy, alcohol-filled and fun weekend, here is a write-up on a play for the 2nd half of the MNF doubleheader between the 49ers and the Bills. On paper, the 8-3 Bills have had a nice season. They’ve won 4 out of their last 5, but these have been against some bad defenses and the only formidable team they’ve beaten in this stretch are the Seahawks, who have been trending downwards. Even though they beat LAC, I would give just as much credit to LAC for beating themselves. In general, Josh Allen has been impressive, but he has been a bit more careless with the football lately, throwing 3 INTs in the last 2 games. The SF D forced 4 turnovers in their win against the Rams last game. They rank 9th in EPA/Play allowed and 9th in Defense DVOA even without key cogs like Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, Richard Sherman for most of the season. Even though BUF is above average offensively, I think the SF D will bring the pain, just like the Bills Mafia do to those poor tables (and their brains). On the other hand, the 49ers have battled injuries to key players all season long and have had a BRUTAL schedule as of late, facing GB, NO, LAR and now a slight step down in competition to BUF. After winning outright against LAR last game, I think they carry some momentum forward to this matchup. With dynamic WR’s Deebo Samuel and rookie Brandon Aiyuk back and RB’s Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman available, this is a huge upgrade to the 49ers offense against a below average BUF D. BUF is 24th in EPA/play allowed (27th in Rush EPA/allowed) for the season and even though they have steadily improved over the season, I think SF can exploit this defense with some fresh and healthy talent on offense in conjunction with Kyle Shanahan’s offensive brilliance. In addition, I see SF licking their chops with ARI losing another game, giving them some hope and additional motivation in the race for the NFC Wild Card. Trends/Stats: Since 2000, BUF is 1-8 SU in Monday night games.

Ø Teams off a Win that are below .500 and are facing their 3rd opponent over .600 (elite teams) in a row have gone 14-5-1 ATS (4.85, 73.7%).

Ø Teams off a Win as an Underdog where they converted 100% of their red zone attempts to TD’s have gone 31-11-1 (5.70, 73.8%) since 2018.

Ø Teams off a Win as an Divisional Underdog on the road are 42-24-1 (2.86, 63.6%) in regular season games since 2016.

The above 3 are active on the SF.A team that has been playing some high level of competition and won their last game tends to carry over the strong performance to the following game. An outright win as an underdog coupled with perfect red zone efficiency OR on the road leads to confidence in the following game.

Conclusion:

The line movement has been wild. This game opened up as SF +2.5 and is now SF -1. I think the returning healthy skill players, the momentum from that last win, and the fact that they are in the playoff hunt gives SF an additional edge and they win this game 27-24 against BUF. BUF has a lookahead spot against PIT next week and I can see them coming out flat, especially with the cross country travel mixed in.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers -1(-110)