2020 Week 2 NFL Picks

Week 2 NFL Picks (9/20/2020) YTD NFL Record: 2-0

New York Giants at Chicago Bears Since 2014, in Week 2, teams off a loss in Week 1 by 7 or more points and are Away Underdogs have gone: 13-3 ATS (4.31, 81.2%). This is active on the New York Giants this week and tells me there is an overreaction to Week 1 results in the market. This matchup fits the category as many bettors will only remember the highlights of the Chicago Bears comeback in the 4th quarter of Week 1 to win outright as an Underdog and may forget they were absolute garbage for the first 3 quarters. On the flip side, the Steelers beatdown of the Giants on Monday Night Football is fresh in people’s minds. Both of these factors will lead people to overrate the Bears and underrate the Giants.

Another sign of overreaction? Since 2014, in Week 2, Underdogs off a Loss and had less than 6 days of rest have gone: 7-1-1 ATS (4.94, 87.5%). This is also active on the Giants. Teams that are off a loss coupled with a short week have performed very well ATS, leading me to believe oddsmakers/market overvalue the impact of the short rest. Since 2016, following a win after they trail more than a touchdown after 3 quarters, teams have gone 11-24-1 ATS (-4.15, 31.4%). This is active as a play against the Bears. I think the emotional win is draining for a team and leads them to underperform the following game. I also believe the comeback makes the betting public think they are better than they truly are. A lot has been discussed about Saquon Barkley’s ineffectiveness in Week 1, only gaining 6 rushing yards from 15 carries. Since Saquon Barkley has been in the league, any time he has less than 40 rushing yards in a game, the following game, the Giants go: 4-1 ATS. The media has been tearing him apart the last couple of days and I see that as fuel and motivation for a bounceback game from one of the league’s most dynamic backs.

In a game with such a low total, I think this is too many points for the Giants. I have the fair line at Bears -2.5/-3. My pick is on the New York Giants to cover and I predict the final score will be 23-20 Bears.

Pick: New York Giants +5.5 Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans In a week of several marquee matchups, I find value in the total of an AFC South matchup hidden at the bottom of the card. The Titans are off a win vs. Broncos, where Gostkowski surprisingly missed THREE FIELD GOALS and a PAT before making the game winning field goal; yet, he still has a job. Their offense was not effective against an above average Broncos defense at home in the Denver altitude. However, they were the best team in the Red Zone last season, converting an incredible 72% of their red zone trips to touchdowns. This offensive efficiency led them to the AFC Championship and I see them being more successful in Week 2 against the Jaguars cupcake defense. I also believe Titans are going to be a bit more aggressive knowing that they still have kicker issues. Last season, after Ryan Tannehill took over as Quarterback in Week 7, the Titans went OVER the total 9 out of 10 regular season games, averaging 30 points in these games. Since 2018, Home Favorites on short rest (less than 6 days) with a Running Back that had more than 22 carries have gone 8-1 OU (8.67, 88.89%) - credit @SBBreakers for his article on bell-cow rushers in the KillerSports 2020 Annual NFL Guide for inspiration on this query. I looked at it from a different angle and my theory is that to give their workhorse back a break, teams tend to run more pass plays and the clock stops more often, which helps a better scenario for the Over. This is active on the Titans as Derrick Henry had 31 rushes last game in Denver. I expect Titans will roll out a more balanced attack, including Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith more in the pass game. Gardner Minshew showed last game that he can make some magic happen. He was incredibly efficient, going 19 of 20 with 3 TD’s (no interceptions) and threw for a TD in both of Jacksonville’s red zone trips. Since 2015, a team off a win as a Home Underdog that converted every trip to the red zone has gone 18-4 OU (10.52, 81.8%). Perhaps it’s a confidence booster for the offense the next game. This is active on the Jaguars. The Titans secondary without Adoree Jackson is not as intimidating and will give Minshew some opportunities to work that magic again! My pick is on the total to go OVER. I have the total projected to be 47 and I predict the final score will be 27-20 Titans.

Pick: Jaguars/Titans Over 44