5/10 KBO Pick + My Most/Least Valuable Betting Teams from this past season

Finally, there’s some action lately that all degenerates can get excited about: UFC, release of NFL schedule, a proposal of MLB to start in July, and the KBO!

KBO Pick:

My KBO debuts have not gotten off to an ideal start for this first week of games, but I have certainly learned a lot, analyzed data, and read up on the teams. Here is a pick for tonight/this morning's games: 5/10/2020 - Kia Tigers (-145) at. Samsung Lions The Kia Tigers will be attempting to avoid a sweep by the lowly Samsung Lions after getting embarrassed two games in a row (a 5-0 shutout in game 1 and a 14-2 drumming in game 2). The Tigers have been bad – they are the league’s worst team on the road and their offense is in a funk (14 runs in 5 games), so why am I backing them?

Left-hander Yang Hyeon-jong is taking the mound for the Kia Tigers today. He led the league last year in ERA (2.25) was the league MVP in 2017. He will be attempting to bounce back from a putrid start to the season when he gave up 4 early runs in a beatdown by the Kiwoom Heroes. Yang is better than that – looking back at his performances last year, he usually rebounded and played a lot better after a poor start. Tigers are also 7-3 in their last 10 games vs. Lions when Yang starts. There is a huge disparity between him and Lions starter Baek Jung-Hyun, who had a 4.9 FIP and a 4.24 ERA in 2019, particularly struggling against the Tigers in the last few seasons.

Pick: Kia Tigers (-145)

Most/Least Valuable Teams of the past season:

I took this past weekend to do a deep dive into my records for this past MLB, NBA, and NFL seasons. I thought it would be a beneficial and meaningful exercise to analyze my own trends, tendencies, strengths, and weaknesses as a handicapper. I won’t tout my records (although I must admit, I am quite happy with my performance), but I thought it would be fun to share my observations on my Most Valuable Teams, my Shit List, and my luckiest win/bad beat. Maybe some of you might have shared in some of those experiences.

Least Valuable Teams: New England F!@#^&!@*#@ Patriots - 1-6 (14.3%) for -13.43 Units (-86.6% ROI) The Patriots were 9-8 ATS in the 2019 season. I happened to go 1-6 betting on the Patriots to cover. Pathetic. I was stubborn and persistent in thinking that the invincible Patriots would steamroll through the 2nd half of the season as the playoffs neared. I was blind to realize the huge drop off in Brady's performance and see the writing on the wall and all the clues that the Brady/Belichick era was finally coming to an end. On top of that, I happened to skip the two games they actually did cover, Week 15 and 16 against the Bengals and Bills, respectively. In my defense, my multi-unit bet on the Ravens to beat the Patriots in Week 9 was one of my biggest W’s. Golden State Warriors – 2-7 (22%) for -5.67 Units (-64.8% ROI) What’s the trend here? I seem to have a bad habit of favoring the best teams over the last several years. What makes it hurt even more is that I despise both of these teams! I kept thinking to myself: Steve Kerr is still their coach, Draymond Green will still play competitively, and D’angelo Russell has something to prove, now playing for his 3rd team in 5 seasons. Even if they didn’t win, they could at least cover a double digit spread as an underdog, right? RIGHT? They threw in the towel and are tanking for next year, where they are probably going to get an awesome draft pick to pair up with their returning superstars to content again. Great.

Most Valuable Teams:

Baltimore Ravens (NFL) – 5-2 (71.4% WP) – +7.95 Units (62.7% ROI) I was able to scoop up Lamar Jackson in late rounds in multiple Fantasy Football leagues and made a nice profit off riding the #1 team in the NFL, easily demolishing these spreads. What an amazing season to watch. I would’ve loved to see a Ravens and Chiefs AFC Championship match, but maybe next year. I did have a regrettable moment taking the Rams +3 and getting demolished 45-3 by the Ravens.

Milwaukee Bucks (NBA) – 12-4 (75% WP) for +7.29 Units (44.71% ROI) Another case of riding the wave of the #1 team in the NBA. Some of these double digit spreads were a bit too heavy for my liking, so I took several 1H lines and usually covered easy. On a side note, I am loving this Giannis/Harden feud that has building up for no reason. Giannis seems to be taking some unnecessary jabs with Harden not backing down and responding with: “I wish I could be 7-feet, run and just dunk. That takes no skill at all.” I can’t wait for their next matchup.

Honorable Mention: MIAMI DOLPHINS (NFL) – 6-1 for +6.9 Units (65.3% ROI) The Dolphins and Fitz-magic came through for me over and over again! The lowly Dolphins actually surprised some folks this season going 9-7 ATS.

Honorable Mention: Charlotte Hornets (NBA) – 9-4-1 (69.23%) for +4.17 Units (27.82% ROI) It wasn’t the most profitable team for me, but I always found value in many of their games. They have some solid, young talent that are trying to prove themselves. I found them to be more hungry than other teams and saw they were undervalued by the market. They were a fun team to bet on!

Best/Luckiest Win:

1. 9/3/2019 - Nationals vs Mets - After being down 10-4 at the Top of the 9th, Nationals make an epic comeback for the Win!

2. 11/17/2019 - 49ers -9.5 vs Cardinals - the most ridiculous, backdoor cover of the year. I'm not complaining as I was a beneficiary of this bizarre sequence of events. Cardinals had one more chance with seconds left on the clock to make one final play. A lateral results in a huddle where the ball shoots out like a cannon right into the 49ers end zone for a Defensive Touchdown and the cover! NFL must have took down all the YouTube videos, so here is the link to a Twitter account for a highlight:

https://twitter.com/WillBrinson/status/1196223592373067777?s=20

Worst Beat:

11/19/2019 - 49ers -6 vs Seattle I couldn't think of any excruciating, heartbreaking bad beats (like betting the Under on the TCU-Baylor game that went into a million OT's), but I took SF in the Overtime Thriller loss to the Seahawks that involved multiple Defensive touchdowns, turnover after turnover, a clutch FG kick from a Rookie kicker, and a bad miss from the Rookie kicker as well. It hurt to be on the losing end of that one, but it was a hell of a game to watch.

Thanks for reading! I think my next post will be a NFL Preview now that the schedule is out.