5/16 - KBO Pick (Giants vs. Eagles Total) and Season Over/Under Observations

It has been a busy several days, so I haven’t had a chance to post any write-ups. My pick from 5/13 – Wyverns -135 was written off as a loss rather quickly as the Wyverns gave up 8 runs in the 2nd inning. That puts me at 2-1 (66.67% WP, +0.65 Units) on the season for these documented picks. Going into the 2nd weekend of KBO action, here are some interesting observations to note:

- In the first week, 17 out of 27 games (63%) went over the total while rumors swirled around Twitter about a “re-juiced” ball. The average total line was 8.83 and the average O/U margin was 2.02 runs. During the second week of action, bookmakers made adjustments as Over/Unders went 9-10 and the average line increased to 9.34. Over/Unders are now at 26-20 (56.5%) season-to-date.

- One thing to note is that games between 2 South Korean starting pitchers have gone over 12 out of 18 games (66.67%) while match-ups between 2 foreign starting pitchers have gone over 2 out of 5 games (40%).

Lotte Giants at Hanwha Eagles O/U Total: 9

The Lotte Giants (6-3) are visiting the Hanwha Eagles (4-6) for the second game of their series. The Eagles pulled off an 2-1 upset as massive underdogs in their first game. The total opened up as 9.5 and is currently at 9. Hanwha Eagles: Offense ranks last in Home Runs, 9th in runs scored, 7th in OBP. Furthermore, they allow the least runs in the league (3.30) and have gone under 8 out of the 10 games. This struggling offense has continued from 2019 where they were ranked 9th in the following categories: Runs Scored, Batting Average, OBP. They performed even worse at home, ranking dead last in Runs Scored, Batting Average, and OBP. Warwick Saupold, one of the lone, bright spots on this team, takes the mound for the Eagles. He played well last season, but especially at home: 3.658 ERA, 1.229 WHIP and the Eagles went on to win 9 out of those 16 games. He’s started off the season strong with a 0.6 WHIP off a season-leading 15 innings pitched. Lotte Giants: Giants have slowed down a bit after their red-hot 5-0 start (against the underachieving SK Wyverns and KT Wiz), but playing the Doosan Bears will usually do that to you. They rank high in most offensive categories (3rd Runs Scored, Batting Average, and OBP), but I think those numbers are inflated because of their early matchups against the teams that allow the most runs: Bears, Wyverns, and Wiz. Their starting pitcher will be Noh Kyung Eun, a 36 year old veteran that began his KBO career in 2003! He missed the entire last season due to injury and he was rusty in his comeback, give up 9 hits and 5 runs in 5 IP to the struggling SK Wyvern offense. He had a solid season in 2018 (9-6, 4.08 ERA, 1.186 WHIP). I’m not sure how much he has left in the tank, but now that the rust is off, I don’t anticipate the Eagles will get much scoring in regardless. Conclusion: Last season, Saupold was 2nd in the league in Innings pitched. I think he continues his strong performance against an over-valued Lotte Giants offense while the Eagles’ feeble offense continues to falter. I predict another low-scoring affair and will go with the UNDER. Pick: Giants/Eagles Under 9 (-115)