Introduction and 3 tools for handicapping
- awang_htx
- Apr 3, 2020
- 4 min read
Updated: Apr 5, 2020
Welcome everybody to my first post! I am a SDQL bachelor and you can find me on Twitter under the handle of @awang_htx. Today marks the end of Week 3 of our COVID-19 quarantine and "work from home" arrangements. As you can imagine, part of the reason I created this blog was out of boredom, but I was also motivated to create an outlet (that allows more than 280 characters) to share my thoughts, opinions and research on some interests of mine: sports handicapping, SDQL, fantasy sports, NBA/NFL/WWE and other pop culture topics that interest me.
A little bit about myself: I grew up in the 90s and one way my family bonded was by watching Houston Rockets basketball games together. I was 8 years old when the Rockets won back-to-back championships. That moment defined my ultimate fandom and loyalty that will exist until I die. I was hooked!
The love for the Rockets also turned into an obsession with NBA basketball. The NBA on NBC Theme song brings back happy, nostalgic memories of my childhood. Those promos and introductions with Bob Costas doing the voiceovers were legendary - nothing today comes close!
Like many other sports fanatics in the 90s, I was an avid basketball card collector. In fact, I read the back of each card and memorized all the players' statistics, colleges and their height/weight. I had a gift of remembering and reciting useless statistics such as Free Throw percentages of obscure players. I still remember Kevin Edwards played on the Miami Heat and shot 84% from the line during the 92-93 season.
In high school, my friends and I started playing Yahoo! fantasy basketball. My love for the game and the statistics/data that revolved around it helped me excel. In 2005, I began handicapping sports. I thought my proficiency in fantasy sports would immediately make me successful. Of course, as many beginner players experience and find out quickly: it's not that easy! No wonder books stay in business.
15 years have gone by and I've proven to be quite successful at this hobby. Besides spending time with my friends and family, not many things bring me as much joy and excitement than the process of researching a play, analyzing the data and using the information to make a winning play. I love it.
In 2019, I discovered 3 tools that helped me become a better player:
#1: The Action Network app - Rather than track my picks manually in an Excel spreadsheet, I could use this tool to track my plays, keep track of the game, and it shows a live probability of your pick success rate.
#2: 5 Buckets of Handicapping - Adam Chernoff
Adam Chernoff (@adamchernoff on Twitter) is an analyst/contributor for several websites and podcasts. He hosts a podcast called "The Simple Handicap", a daily 15-minute show during the NFL season that analyzes line movements, anticipates market activity, and provides thorough handicaps. These days, it's hard to find quality sports handicapping content among all the touts out there, but Adam provides incredibly insightful commentary and analysis. He wrote an an article that broke down handicapping into 5 simple buckets that I use to approach each game. This has helped me evolve as a player.
Link to article:
Statistical: Can you spot edges or efficiencies in the line/market?
Analytical: The on-field/on-court analysis. Are there any match-up advantages you can exploit? Is it priced into the line?
Situational: Analyzing travel schedules, weather reports, amount of rest, motivation/revenge factors.
Informational: Player news and injuries. How much is a player worth to a line? Was there an overreaction to certain news? In this era of "load management", there are many last-minute scratches you can take advantage of before line movements occur.
Recreational: Public narrative and media bias. How does this affect the market?
#3: SDQL aka Sports Data Query Language - I saved the best for last. This is the Holy Grail right here!
In the middle of this past NFL season, I realized that over the last several years, I was very successful early on in the season, but struggled towards the end. My "home underdog/fade the public" mentality of years past was not consistent and I knew I had to evolve. I wanted to specifically know how good teams performed as Home Favorites after a certain point in the season. After doing some searches online, I found this amazing database that would allow me to run queries and situations to find the answer to my question and SO much more. Check out the site below:
Look, I've seen many folks online say that trends and historical data are irrelevant to handicapping, but I disagree. This information can help you understand and analyze the psyche and tendencies of players, teams and even bookmakers in certain situations. SDQL is THE tool to help with that. There are so many parameters for each sport - I suggest you visit the site above to read the manuals, practice some queries and equip yourself for some knowledge for when sports finally returns. There is also a strong SDQL community on Twitter that is always willing to help and answer any questions. My next series of posts will be centered on handicapping research of the NBA Playoffs. I am still holding out hope that this will still happen this season!
Awesome post man! Look forward for more!