5/17 - KBO Pick - Heroes vs Twins - Under 8.5 (ESPN)

Kiwoom Heroes at LG Twins Total: 8.5

The Kiwoom Heroes (6-5) will try to avoid a sweep by the red-hot LG Twins (7-3) at Jamsil Stadium in Seoul LIVE on ESPN. The teams played a double header yesterday and Twins won both games and both went under the total. I was wanting to search some trends on double headers and surprisingly, there have only been 6 KBO double headers since 2015, lower than I expected. I presume we will see a lot more in this shortened season. Over/Unders went 2-4 yesterday and are now at 28-24 (53.8%) season-to-date after starting the first week 17-10 (63%). Games between 2 South Korean starting pitchers have gone over 14 out of 22 games (63%) while match-ups between 2 foreign starting pitchers have gone over 3 out of 9 games (33.3%).

Kiwoom Heroes: Contrary to last season where they had one of the top offenses in the league, they’ve struggled to get their bats going. The Heroes are 8th in runs scored, 8th in batting average, 8th in OBP, but despite the offensive woes, they have performed well due to the backing of their strong starting pitching and bullpen (Bullpen – 3rd in ERA, 2nd in WHIP this season. Ranked #1 in both categories last season). Even though they used 10 pitchers in yesterday’s double-header, they were not in position to utilize their young, talented closer Cho Sang-Woo who is 4-4 in saves this season. In addition, they are starting Eric Jokisch tonight, one of the top pitchers in the KBO. He’s started off this season on fire boasting a 1.63 ERA, a .818 WHIP, and an 11 SO/Walk Ratio. With both of those guys fresh, they may not need too much support from their fatigued bullpen. LG Twins: After drawing tough opponents (Bears and Dinos) in their first two series, the Twins have been tearing it up and have won 6 in a row. Their offense has been solid and they have a group of strong hitters, but they’ve only averaged 3.7 runs in their last 3 wins against the stingy Heroes defense. Today’s match-up will be no different. Cha-woon Chan is starting for LG and is one of the top Korean starters in the league. The Twins went 3-1 vs. Heroes in 2019 when Chan started and during their playoff series, even though the Twins lost, he pitched a gem against them (7 IP, 5 strikeouts, 1 run). I expect this success to continue tonight against the Heroes’ inept offense. It is unfortunate that their up-and-coming closer Ko Woo-Suk is having surgery and will be out for the majority of the season, but the Twins’ bullpen has still been one of the best in the league and they did not require as much utilization in yesterday’s games. Prediction: Pitchers seem to be adjusting well to the high scoring start in the league and unders have been doing quite well this past week. Both starters and their bullpens have been strong. I expect this game will go UNDER one more time to close out the series. Pick: Heroes/Twins Under 8.5 (-110) Season to date KBO Record: 3-1 (75%, +1.65 Units)