#NBA Restart Season: Dallas Mavericks Win Total 4.5

Regular Season Record: 40-27 (.597), 7th seed in West Notable Missing Players: Willie Cauley-Stein (Opted Out), Dwight Powell (Out for Season – Ruptured Achilles tendon), Courtney Lee (Out for Season – Calf Injury) As a Houston Rockets fan, it pains me to write this glowing review, but the over-achieving Dallas Mavericks have been excellent this season, almost eclipsing their original win total of 40.5 wins through only 67 games played before the league shut down. The primary driver of this stellar performance is thanks to MVP-candidate Luka Doncic’s ascension into superstardom, averaging 28.7 PPG, 9.3 RPG and 8.7 APG at the age of 21. Luka Doncic is supported by the talented (and oft-injured) Kristaps Porzingis, but there have been numerous other role players that have stepped up their game this season:

· Seth Curry: Avg 2.5 3PM/Game at a blistering .453 3P%. Active NBA leader in career 3P% at .443

· Tim Hardaway Jr – Avg 2.9 3PM/Game at .407 3P%.

· Dorian Finney-Smith – Underrated 3 and D wing

· Maxi Kleber – Big man that can shoot (1.6 3PM/gm at .374 3P%) and can defend the rim as well with 1.2 BPG

· Delon Wright – a scrappy PG off the bench that can defend opposing guards

Road Warriors Although they went 40-27 in the regular season, there was a stark contrast in their Home/Away splits, going 21-12 SU / 21-11-1 ATS on the Road and 19-15 SU / 14-20 ATS at Home. This leads me to believe they can be more successful at a neutral site. Their net rating away from Home was ranked 2nd overall in the league, only second to the Milwaukee Bucks. Their Offensive Efficiency was ranked #1 overall and #1 on the road. This is my best guess, but I think there are two factors will lead to a decrease in defensive intensity/efforts and increased scoring. One is the absence of fans. Secondly, as silly as it sounds, I frankly don’t think teams are going to put as much effort into defense due to health concerns and getting too physical and aggressive with folks that may have had the virus. This leads me to believe that Dallas’s offensive efficiency will allow them to flourish. Team Chemistry/Motivation It appears the Mavericks are bonding well with another inside the bubble. Several videos have surfaced of the Mavs teammates playing Spikeball, fishing, and spending a lot of time with another while other squads are still working their way into the bubble. This should have a positive impact on team chemistry that should not be underrated when assessing their chances for success. This will help communication and performance chemistry on the court. Rick Carlisle is an excellent coach and will have this team ready to play. The Mavericks also currently sit at 7th seed. While it appears the 1st (Lakers), 2nd (Clippers), and 8th (Grizzlies/Pelicans/Kings/Blazers, my guess of likelihood in that order) seeds are locked up in the West, number 3-7 are still wide open. The Clippers would be a disastrous first round matchup for the Mavericks, so I anticipate that they will be very motivated to move up in the standings and secure themselves an easier first round matchup. Spreading the Floor With the absence of Willie Cauley-Stein and Dwight Powell, Mavericks will be forced to play Porzingis and Kleber at the Center position. While you may think this could be disadvantageous to them against larger opponents, I see it as an advantage for them to play bit faster and spread the floor. Teams won’t be able to double much on Luka because he is surrounded by excellent shooters. If they can force opposing teams to switch defenders, Luka will eat the big man alive. Schedule:

I believe the Mavs have an distinct and clear advantage over the Suns, Kings, and Trailblazers, accounting for 4 Wins already.

With Russell Westbrook and James Harden arriving to the bubble late, I give the Mavericks an advantage for being more game-ready than the Rockets will be. Westbrook has been recovering from COVID-19 and while it has not been confirmed, it has been speculated that Harden caught the virus as well. Mavericks and Rockets split their season series 1-1, but their loss occurred when Luka sat out.

The Utah Jazz will be another tough matchup as the Mavericks went 0-2 against them this season. One game was without Luka and the other was in Utah. This season, the Jazz have played well on the road and efficiency stats don’t show much of a variance, but make no mistake, Utah has one of the strongest Home Court Advantages in the league and loses an edge going into “The Bubble”. Given the circumstances and chemistry concerns between Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert, I give the Mavericks another win here.

The two remaining match-ups are against championship contenders Clippers and Bucks. Both teams have the defensive personnel to make life very difficult for the Mavericks. However, with the Bucks 6.5 games ahead of the Raptors, they could have the 1st seed locked up by this time and not be as motivated. Also, the following game on the schedule for Bucks is against the Raptors, so it could be a look-ahead let down spot for the Bucks.

Conclusion:

Upon analyzing the roster construction, schedule breakdown, and a team chemistry edge, I am bullish on the Rick Carlisle-led Dallas Mavericks to go over their “NBA Bubble” Win Total of 4.5. While I don’t think they have a shot at the championship, they will definitely be able to surprise many people in Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis’s playoff debut.

Pick:OVER Dallas Mavericks 4.5 Wins (-115)