NBA Playoff Predictions and Playoff System: O/U on Round 1, Game 1

Today would have been the start to one of my favorite times of the year - the NBA Playoffs! With the Warriors out of the picture, it would've been refreshing to see another team represent the West. See below for my predictions on how it would've played out and some insight on a simple NBA Playoff O/U System.

Western Conference – First Round

1 Lakers vs. 8 Grizzlies

Ja Morant and the exciting up and coming Grizzlies get a chance to showcase their talents against the Western Conference favorites. Grizzlies would steal one game at home and show everyone how fun they are, but Lebron and AD would dispose of them quickly. Lakers in 5.

2 Clippers vs. 7 Mavericks

Luka will shine in his playoff debut for the well-coached Mavs, but the Clippers are way too deep and strong. The Clippers were 2-0 against Dallas in their season series and both games were in Dallas. Unless a 2011 Dirk Nowitzki comes and suits up alongside Luka and KP, then my prediction is: Clippers in 5.

3 Nuggets vs. 6 Rockets

This is not a homer pick, I promise.The Nuggets have lost their last 8 of 11 against the Rockets. They do not match-up well against them. This would be a competitive series, but Harden and Westbrook lead the Rockets to victory against the more playoff-inexperienced Nuggets, much to the media and the NBA public's chagrin. Rockets in 6.

4 Jazz vs. 5 Thunder

What an amazing season from the Thunder so far. Chris Paul has shown he’s still got something in the tank and combo guard Shai-Gilgeous Alexander has been a breakout star. His natural knack for scoring pairs so well with CP3. Jazz has one of the best homecourt advantages, but the Thunder have been money on the road (20-11 SU and 22-8 ATS). Jazz chemistry takes a hit after Rudy Gobert gets Coronavirus and his irresponsible actions at the press conference. Thunder in 6.

Eastern Conference – First Round

1 Bucks vs. 8 Magic

Bucks sweep easily. Bucks in 4.

2 Raptors vs. 7 Nets

The defending champs make it two sweeps for the Eastern Conference. Nets are in shambles – they fired their coach, Kyrie is out for the season and they are preparing for next season when Kevin Durant returns. Raptors in 4.

3 Celtics vs. 6 76ers

The Celtics and Sixers have one of the NBA’s historic and longest-tenured rivalries, so these games are always intense and competitive. Sixers have been a strange team this season. They look great on paper, but they’ve been inconsistent, terrible on the road and the team chemistry just doesn’t seem to be clicking all that well. With that said, they are still 3-1 against the Celtics this year. This will be one of the only competitive first round matchups and I predict the Celtics will triumph with their advantages in superior coaching, team chemistry and consistency. Celtics in 7.

4 Heat vs. 5 Pacers

The Heat have been outperforming their expectations the entire year. They’ve got a solid group of young rookies that are adding value and contributing immediately. The Pacers have played well, too – Oladipo has returned, but he hasn’t looked like his old form. I think Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler have an advantage over Sabonis and Oladipo. Regardless, the winner will just advance and get stomped by the Bucks. Heat in 6.

Western Conference – Conference Semi Finals

1 Lakers vs. 5 Thunder

The gritty Thunder have been a nice story this year, but the Lakers are way too talented. Lakers were 3-0 in their season series, so I think it’ll be a gentleman’s sweep as the Thunder put in extra effort to steal one game. Lakers in 5.

2 Clippers vs. 6 Rockets

This is where the road for my beloved Rockets ends.The last slaughtering the Clippers gave the Rockets in Houston proved to me that they are not on the same level.Clippers are way too deep on both sides of the floor. They have multiple defenders (Kawhi, PG, Beverley) they can throw at Harden and Westbrook. Zubac and Montrezl Harrell exploited the “center-less” Rockets and scored at ease. D’Antoni is known for playing short playoff rotations so the Rockets are fatigued by now. Clippers in 6.

Eastern Conference – Conference Semi Finals

1 Bucks vs. 4 Heat

A well-rested Bucks after a sweep come out strong against the Heat. Their offense is stout – outside of Giannis, you’ve got guys like Khris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe that can carry the offense. You’ve got a unique weapon in Brook Lopez whom is a good defender, but can also spread the floor and shoot the 3. The Heat get close a few times, but Bucks in 5.

2 Raptors vs. 3 Celtics

I am surprised at how well Raptors have played this year after losing Kawhi and Danny Green. Siakam has taken his game to another level and Lowry continues to be a feisty bulldog at PG. But, I think the championship hangover sets in a little and the Celtics show they are a little bit more hungry than the Raptors. Jayson Tatum continues his ascension into superstardom and a healthy Kemba Walker gives it his all after toiling away on the disappointing Hornets his whole career. Celtics in 6.

Conference Finals

1 Lakers vs. 2 Clippers

Hollywood showdown! The Lakers seem like the team destined to win. The narrative is that with legend Kobe Bryant passing earlier this season (Rest in Peace, eff 2020), Lebron James and the Lakers must carry on his legacy and win a championship in Kobe’s honor. That would be a storybook ending, but I think the Clippers have the better team. Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell gives them such dynamic scoring off the bench - who will the Lakers have match up against them? I also think Anthony Davis has the highest chance of getting injured. This will be close, but I think the Clippers win in a physical and emotional battle for the ages. Clippers in 7.

1 Bucks vs. 3 Celtics

Bucks took care of the Celtics in 5 in last season’s Conference semifinals, so Boston might have some extra revenge/motivational factor in them. However, I think Boston is worn out from 2 tough series while the Bucks are fresh. I think the strong defense from Giannis and Eric Bledsoe would hold Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker in check. Boston makes it more competitive than the year before, but I will go: Bucks in 6.

NBA Finals

2 Clippers vs 1 Bucks

After watching 5 straight seasons of Golden State Warriors in the Finals and Lebron James featured in 8 of the last 9 Finals, it will be nice to finally see something different. Bucks were on pace for a 67-15 record, tied for 7th best in NBA history. That is amazing, but they were beating up on these lowly Eastern teams. The talent gap between the West and East is still so wide, especially with The King coming West. The Bucks are only 6-5 against Western teams over .500. Also, the Clippers are sandbagging. They are 44-20 (68.8%) overall and 34-30 ATS (53%). Both Kawhi and PG13 have only played in half of those 64 games, in which they are 24-8 (75%) and 20-12 ATS (62.5%)!

The Greek Freak is great, but the Clippers will wear him out by throwing Kawhi and PG at him. The Fun Guy has got 2 championships and Final MVPs under his belt and would’ve added another this year. Clippers in 6.

Your COVID-19-20 NBA Champions: LA Clippers!

Playoff System – O/U

How do you think totals do in Game 1’s of the first round? Players get the playoff jitters and teams ramp up their defensive intensity for the playoffs. Common sense tells me that it favors the Under. I was interested in this after I realized that ALL 8 Round 1, Game 1s went Under last season. Since 2009, each Round 1 Game 1 have gone 32-46-2 O/U (41%). FG% has almost dipped 2% in these games in comparison to season averages.

Not bad. That got me curious. What were the results when the previous matchup between the two teams went over? My thought was that if the last game went Over, recency bias would set in an cause the market to favor a higher total. To add a parameter that checks this, use "and P:O". The "P" indicates the results from the Previous matchup (also used to look at Revenge angles) and "O" is a shortcut for Over.

Seems like a nice recipe! I wish we had a chance to use it today. As always, the data was provided by SDQL at https://killersports.com.